The Current Cryptocurrency Price and the Incoming(?) Bull Market
The past days have seen wild cryptocurrency price movements across all major coins and alts in what the optimistic are calling the end of crypto winter. While this author remains skeptical as to whether or not we have already seen the bottom, there are still many in the crypto world that believe a retracement is imminent.
However, this run is welcomed as it is a reprieve from the bears that have been plaguing cryptocurrency market prices during the 85% fall in the price of cryptocurrency over the past 2 years. FOMO among traders is in large part fueling this bull run with people looking to buy more coins and tokens, HODL and wait for their moon lambos. Jokes aside, Bitcoin itself has gone from 4,200USD to 8,000USD in less than 6 weeks which is opening many to the thought that the next major bull market could see prices skyrocket well in excess of their 20,000USD highs in 2017. Either way, a prolonged bull is likely if we consider the uptrend in the 200 day moving average considering the market’s previous performance in such a long-lasting uptrend.
If we look at historical prices of Bitcoin’s DMA we can see that the first long term price increase began in June of 2013 and lasted for a whopping 761 days, during which time the price increased 23,308%. The second major increase began in everyone’s favorite bull run beginning in October of 2015, lasted for 961 days and resulted in more than a 7,500% price increase. Many see this current 2 week run as the beginning of a new 200 DMA which could result in a price increase that non-crypto investors never dreamed possible.
The next bull run will likely be higher due to the fact that many people are much more cognizant of crypto, essentially the normies are buying in, as well as the fact that many more institutional investors and world governments are involved in crypto markets, which means that crypto is more easy to purchase and trade than ever. Couple this with the fact that major government-backed financial markets have been under-performing due to the growing trade war between China and the US, people are looking for new markets in which they can place their trust. Another contributing factor are major tech companies working to spur mass adoption, notably with Apple adding the ability to transfer Bitcoin over the Lightning Network and Samsung adding a native digital wallet to their new line of phones.
All signs are looking good in the crypto world as previous investors return to the market; as well more the fact that more governments, businesses and institutions are entering the market, and more and more no-coiners are themselves entering the world of cryptocurrency. Here’s to hoping for the next bull run, we’ll see you all on the moon.
May 17 11:00SGT UPDATE
Well, you all have seen what happened. A single candle destroyed a week’s worth of progress in the Bitcoin market as we dumped as low as 6931USD. As of 13:47SGT we have stabilized around the 7200USD mark but nobody can be certain how long this will last. As of now, Binance, BitFinex, BitThumb and BitFlyer are all showing sell to string sell sentiments, so it seems traders may be feeling another dip coming. Only time will tell.
May 20 11:26SGT UPDATE
As per usual in crypto trading, we have had something of a wild weekend with Bitcoin price movements, with the price surging back up over 8,000USD in a very quick and strong recovery. On the 19th Bitcoin saw a price increase of 7% resulting in a staggering jump up to the 8,200USD price range, and just when it seemed good things don’t last long with the price dipping to 7,800USD, it is currently holding slightly over 8,000USD. The fact the market was able to recover so quickly is likely a sign of an increasingly positive sentiment among both traders and holders, as well as in the larger global financial market in general. Traders are now hoping a stabilization occurs which continues into a rise for Bitcoin, while others believe we may stabilize around the 8,000USD region moving into a sideways market leading into a new altcoin spring. For the time being, all we can say is that sentiment seems positive and hopes high not only for Bitcoin, but for all cryptocurrencies in general.
Article by Joseph Imbruglia of the Bybit Cryptocurrency Research Team